A full-scale war between Iran and Israel could impact the 2024 U.S. elections, particularly for Democrats, in several ways:
- Foreign Policy Perception: The Democratic Party, particularly under the Biden administration, has focused on diplomacy, including trying to revive the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and maintaining stability in the Middle East. If a war breaks out, critics could argue that this approach failed, possibly eroding confidence in the party’s foreign policy. Republicans may capitalize on this, claiming a tougher stance on Iran or stronger support for Israel is necessary.
- Economic Fallout: A war between Iran and Israel could disrupt global oil markets, given Iran’s significant role as an oil exporter. This could lead to spikes in oil prices, higher inflation, and economic instability—issues that are typically very important to voters. If the U.S. economy suffers as a result, voters might blame the incumbent administration, in this case, the Democrats.
- Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz:
– The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint. Around 20-25% of the world’s petroleum, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), passes through this narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
– If Iran were to shut down or disrupt traffic through the Strait (by mining the waters, using military force, or threatening tankers with missile strikes), it could drastically reduce the global supply of oil. Even the threat of such action can cause oil prices to spike, as seen in previous regional tensions.
– With oil supply reduced, global energy prices would surge. This would lead to inflationary pressures, as higher energy costs would increase the price of almost every good and service—especially transportation, manufacturing, and heating.
- Mediterranean Shipping Routes:
– If conflict escalates beyond the Strait of Hormuz and extends into the Mediterranean Sea, particularly the Eastern Mediterranean, it could severely affect shipping routes used by Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa for energy and goods.
– The Suez Canal, connecting the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, is a critical shipping route for oil, LNG, and goods traveling between Europe and Asia. Iran could seek to disrupt maritime traffic, causing bottlenecks and further driving up global shipping costs. Any conflict that threatens the stability of the canal or nearby shipping lanes would have a far-reaching economic impact, affecting European and Asian markets directly.
– Shipping companies might be forced to reroute, leading to longer travel times, increased fuel consumption, and higher shipping costs. These increased costs would be passed on to consumers, further contributing to global inflation.
- Energy Prices Soaring:
– Oil is a global commodity, so any disruption in the supply chain would affect markets everywhere. In a worst-case scenario, the price of crude oil could spike dramatically—similar to what happened during the oil shocks of the 1970s, when oil prices quadrupled, or more recently during tensions with Iran.
– Gasoline prices in the U.S. and other oil-importing countries would rise steeply, leading to immediate political and economic consequences. Rising fuel prices would not only increase the cost of filling up at the pump but would also affect transportation, logistics, and supply chains across all industries.
– This could trigger a global recession, as businesses would face rising costs while consumers would have less disposable income due to higher energy prices. The U.S. economy, still sensitive to inflation concerns, could face stagflation—a situation where economic growth stalls but inflation continues to rise.
- Inflation and Consumer Spending:
– Energy costs are a major component of inflation because they affect both producers and consumers. Higher transportation and manufacturing costs lead to more expensive goods and services. Meanwhile, rising fuel prices reduce disposable income for consumers, as they spend more on basic needs like gasoline and utilities.
– The U.S., Europe, and other advanced economies would face a squeeze, as central banks (like the Federal Reserve) may have to raise interest rates to combat inflation. This could slow economic growth even further, exacerbating unemployment and reducing investment.
– Countries heavily dependent on oil imports, particularly in Europe and Asia, would be hit hardest. Europe, still recovering from energy disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war, would face a double burden, further straining its economies.
- Stock Market and Investor Confidence:
– Global markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially in regions critical to energy production. A war between Iran and Israel would create massive uncertainty for investors, potentially leading to a stock market selloff.
– The energy sector might benefit temporarily from rising oil prices, but most industries, from tech to manufacturing, would be negatively affected by higher costs and slower growth. This would lead to volatility in financial markets, and with investor confidence shaken, businesses might cut back on hiring and investments.
– In the U.S., financial market turmoil could erode confidence in the economy just as election campaigns ramp up. Voters tend to react negatively to economic downturns, and if Democrats are seen as unable to manage the crisis, it could have electoral consequences.
- Global Supply Chains and Trade:
– Beyond oil, Iran and Israel are part of a broader trade network that includes not only energy but also goods like agricultural products, minerals, and high-tech products. Disruptions to the shipping lanes or port closures could wreak havoc on global supply chains, especially in Europe and the Middle East.
– The shipping insurance industry would also react. Premiums for ships passing through conflict zones would skyrocket, making it more expensive to move goods. With costs increasing across the board, businesses would face significant delays and financial losses.
– These disruptions could further destabilize economies, especially in developing nations, leading to a global economic slowdown.
- Political Repercussions and Voter Sentiment:
– The economic fallout from such a conflict would significantly impact voter sentiment, particularly if the Democratic administration is seen as failing to prevent or mitigate the crisis. Rising gas prices and inflation are often key concerns for voters, and the party in power tends to be blamed for economic hardships.
– If the U.S. faces an economic downturn due to this conflict, Republican candidates could argue for tougher foreign policies, criticizing Democrats for failing to anticipate or prevent the situation. The economic strain could turn key swing voters toward candidates advocating for stronger national security and energy independence, weakening the Democrats’ electoral prospects.
- Public Opinion on U.S. Involvement:
A prolonged conflict could pressure the U.S. to get involved, either militarily or through diplomatic and economic support. Public opinion on U.S. interventionism is mixed, and any involvement could polarize voters. Democrats could lose support among voters who are either pro-Israel, anti-interventionist, or simply want a focus on domestic issues.
- Political Polarization on Israel:
While the U.S. historically has had bipartisan support for Israel, recent years have seen growing divides within the Democratic Party on the issue. Progressive Democrats are more critical of Israeli policies, especially regarding Palestinians, while centrist Democrats support Israel more strongly. A war would likely exacerbate these tensions, potentially fracturing the party’s base and weakening their chances in the election.
- Immigration and Security Concerns:
A war could result in refugee crises or an escalation of global terrorism concerns. Republicans often focus on national security and border control, and a war could provide an opportunity to critique Democratic policies on immigration, Middle Eastern engagement, or homeland security.
- Focus Shift from Domestic Issues:
If the war dominates media coverage, it could divert attention from key domestic issues like healthcare, education, and infrastructure, which are central to the Democratic platform. Voters may feel that domestic concerns are being overshadowed by foreign entanglements, making them more inclined to vote for a party perceived as more focused on internal issues.